Hung Parliament and a second election in 2010

If the polls continue their current trends, a hung parliament and a second election in the autumn becomes very likely.

This could be the year of the duelling budgets.

Cameron is commited to a budget in 50 days, late June, and a summer parliament to pass the budget.

Should the Tories manage a minority government, the Tory budget risks defeat followed by an October election.

A close result would encourage Labour to stick with Brown to fight an autumn poll.

Both Labour and Tories should study the short lived Joe Clark Canadian government of 1979-80. Clarke lost his budget vote and lost the subsequent election. Despite 13 years in power the Liberals, under Trudeau, stormed back to power with a small majority.

Brown and Labour could do the same. Like Cameron, Joe Clarke failed "to seal the deal". People preferred a Trudeau budget over Clarke's.

Georgie 'boy' Osborne's GCSE June budget could well be a vote loser.

Personally, I expect a Labour government either with a small majority or a Labour minority.

Osborne's GCSE economics is Cameron's Achilles heel. A Tory summer budget would be an autumn vote loser. People in the media forget what a formidable opposition performer Gordon Brown is and would be.

There will be no summer hols for MPs this year, unless Brown wins.